In short, the big bets are hiding
The second chart shows that the month of August is basically the most sensitive, due to low trading volumes, to a shock in volatility, something that CTAs are taking into account, while the rest of the world still seems to ignore it. Evolution of the VVIX in August Finally, the third chart, is commented with these words in the Nomura report: "If the second half of August provides the market with enough clues about the loss of momentum of the US macroeconomic indicators, then it is likely that the Market fundamentals-oriented investors, such as funds or retail clientele, follow the example of the CTA and start selling, unloading positions.
Even in a drastic way, almost like a sell-off. In that scenario, the possibility that US stocks fall into a downward spiral driven by a crisis of volatility and confidence comparable to that which occurred in the case of Lehman Middle East Phone Number ListBrothers , it seems to us a more than plausible risk." Investor sentiment during the Lehman Brothers crisis and now Extreme risk, then. And its potential is more than likely. But now let's look at the hypothesis table. Let's start with the obvious consequences, always from Nomura's point of view: "At that point, given that the Fed has now fallen beyond the curve, it will almost certainly be forced to make a sizeable cut ininterest rates.
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minus 50 basis points". And Donald Trump satisfied, in short. Read more:The prejudices, not just racist, of Donald Trump's government But, most of the big question that remained unanswered and related to the implicit cost that this presidential intention, that hidden agenda, will impose on the world, are Americans aware of this situation, potential and extreme but very real and , so to speak, in the process of being fulfilled? It seems not, at least according to the results of the latest survey conducted by Gallup , the country's most important opinion polling agency, regarding what American citizens perceive as the main problem of the society in which they live. This graphic offers the answer and opens up very disturbing scenarios, also in light of the supremacist massacre in El Paso: immigration .
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